Peer-reviewed journal articles:
Gill-Tiney, Patrick. 2022. ‘A Liberal Peace?: The Growth of Liberal Norms and the Decline of Interstate Violence’. The Journal of Conflict Resolution 66 (3): 413–42.
Tiney, Patrick. 2019. ‘T. V. Paul, Restraining Great Powers: Soft Balancing From Empires To The Global Era’. St Antony’s International Review 14 (2): 201-204.
‘Rising power disputes: subordinate monopolization and major interstate war’ (book project)
Based on my dissertation, I argue that a particularly dangerous pathway for rising powers is to seek to monopolize subordinates, since this leads into competition with other major powers, heightening the risk of major interstate war. Drafts have been presented at APSA, MPSA, and PSA.
‘The deterrence and containment of rising powers’
Reactions of major powers to the emergence of a rising power vary far more than deterrence theory expects. I argue that rather than systemic concerns about the balance of power, it is interest compatibility which shapes threat perception and responses to rising powers.
‘The location of rising power disputes: social position and regional expansion’
This paper argues that the social position of rising powers has an influential effect upon the location of disputes rising powers enter into. In short, those rising from within the ranks of the great powers tend to have extra-regional disputes, whilst those rising from below the great powers concentrate in their home region.
‘Rising powers, the legitimacy and visibility of new technology, and the pursuit of status’
Rising powers are better placed to take advantage of new military technology than other states since, by definition, they have ‘spare’ resources to invest. However, even though this can alter the relative balance of power, status does not necessarily accrue. When a technological lead cannot be credibily shown to potential adversaries without using it against them, the balance of power remains unchanged. Moreover, when a technology is considered illegitimate, its possession may be viewed as taboo. Case study analysis shows the divergent pathways resulting.
Projects in development:
‘Strategic interactions and democratic peace theory’
Empirical findings for the democratic peace theory tend to be dyadic, yet most mechanisms are monadic. This poses a substantial problem for studies of regime type and conflict, since theory and empirics are miss-aligned. In this paper, I specify dyadic mechanisms for the democratic peace, and then empirically evaluate their existence during Anglo-American crises in the era of the Great Rapprochement.
‘Hierarchy and the development of the states-system’
This project will use content analysis of the Consolidated Treaty Series to map the functions of treaties, with the purpose of relating them to processes of state creation and polity death, contributing to our understanding of the seismic shift from diverse polities toward consolidation on empires and states over the 1648-1918 period.
‘Shinzo Abe or Abe Shinzo: from western order to international order?’ (OxPol blog, 17th April 2020)
‘London and the rest: regional transport disparities in the UK’ (OxPol blog, 13th May 2019)
‘Is power-sharing a solution in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict?’ (OxPol blog, 3rd April 2019)
‘Japan’s aircraft carriers and the balance of naval capabilities in Asia’ (OxPol blog, 17th December 2018)
‘NATO, the Russian threat and defence spending’ (OxPol blog, 26th July 2018)
Popular Graphic Arts, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons